2016年12月27日 星期二

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events


這些事肯定都會在 2017 年發生。但真正的黑天鵝事件是什麼?——亦即現在不在我們的視野之內,卻會擾亂金融市場的事件?
(譯注:歐洲人以前所見的天鵝都是白色,所以認為天鵝都是白色。直到在澳洲看到黑天鵝,才對天鵝的認識改觀。「黑天鵝」指那些一旦發生,就會產生使人改觀的意外事件。)


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying which presumed black swans did not exist, but the saying was rewritten after black swans were discovered in the wild.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
  3. The psychological biases which blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event's massive role in historical affairs.
Unlike the earlier and broader "black swan problem" in philosophy (i.e. the problem of induction), Taleb's "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[1]:xxi More technically, in the scientific monograph 'Silent Risk',[2] Taleb mathematically defines the black swan problem as "stemming from the use of degenerate metaprobability".[2]

Background[edit]

The phrase "black swan" derives from a Latin expression; its oldest known occurrence is the poet Juvenal's characterization of something being "rara avis in terris nigroque simillima cygno" ("a rare bird in the lands and very much like a black swan").[3]:165 When the phrase was coined, the black swan was presumed not to exist. The importance of the metaphor lies in its analogy to the fragility of any system of thought. A set of conclusions is potentially undone once any of its fundamental postulates is disproved. In this case, the observation of a single black swan would be the undoing of the logic of any system of thought, as well as any reasoning that followed from that underlying logic.
Juvenal's phrase was a common expression in 16th century London as a statement of impossibility. The London expression derives from the Old World presumption that all swans must be white because all historical records of swans reported that they had white feathers.[4] In that context, a black swan was impossible or at least nonexistent.

2016年12月26日 星期一

Ayahuasca. tested negative for benzodiazepines, cocaine, opiates, THC, carisoprodol, methamphetamine/MDMA, oxycodone, and zolpidem.


“Ayahuasca takes you to the swampland of your soul.”

How ayahuasca, an ancient Amazonian hallucinogenic brew, became the latest trend in Brooklyn and Silicon Valley.
NEWYORKER.COM|由 ARIEL LEVY 上傳



When Joseph Schwab was pulled over in August 2015, he was booked for misdemeanor driving under the influence of a drug. But his blood alcohol level was 0.00%, and he tested negative for benzodiazepines, cocaine, opiates, THC, carisoprodol (a muscle relaxant), methamphetamine/MDMA, oxycodone, and zolpidem.
The only drug for which he tested positive? Caffeine.


當約瑟夫·施瓦佈於2015年8月被推倒時,他因在藥物的影響下被輕罪駕駛而被預訂。 但他的血液酒精濃度為0.00%,他對苯二氮卓類藥物,可卡因,阿片製劑,THC,卡立普多(肌肉鬆弛劑),甲基苯丙胺/ MDMA,羥考酮和唑吡坦均檢測為陰性。

他唯一的藥物,他測試了積極? 咖啡因。


 If a vehicle pulls over, it moves to the side of the road and stops

2016年12月22日 星期四

Lycra, a MAMIL (Middle-Aged Man in Lycra),



The freedom of the open road has long appealed to men of a certain age. But instead of buying a sports car or motorbike, more and more are turning to long-distance cycling. The confessions of a MAMIL (Middle-Aged Man in Lycra), by The Economist’s 1843 magazine


An increasing number of men are having affairs...with their bicycles
The best of 2016
1843MAGAZINE.COM



sprawling, chale, clad, sandal-clad, sylvan, aluminum-clad, Lycra-clad
http://word-watcher.blogspot.com/2008/03/chale-clad.html


2016年12月18日 星期日

kowtow

 kowtow:少數百多年前的中文詞彙走入英文



民報


【楊憲宏專欄】
從2012年就成立「想想論壇」的蔡英文,四年後,上了美國《外交政策》期刊「全球百大思想家」名單。讓人有點納悶,沒有發表思想哲學著作的蔡英文,為什麼會被外國人認證為「思想家」?難道是因為「想想」?

答案恐怕不是。作者指出《外交政策》是基於人類正面臨一個「恐懼壓倒理性」的時代危機,他們選出來的思想家,代表人類與生俱來的渴望,「對抗悲觀主義不向絕望投降、挑戰醜陋人性拒絕接受失敗」。而蔡英文獲選,是因為她敢「戳那頭熊」,不像其他人那樣,向中共kowtow,這是她的膽識與勇氣。
(動考時間/英文小想想:什麼叫做kowtow?)


【民報】台灣成為正常國家是蔡英文總統的承諾與任務
在世局紛亂中,仍有一些清新的主張,令人感到振奮。其中之一是,美國《…
PEOPLENEWS.TW





kowtow
kaʊˈtaʊ/
verb
  1. 1.
    act in an excessively subservient manner.

    "she didn't have to kowtow to a boss"

    synonyms:grovel, behave obsequiously, be obsequious, be servile, be sycophantic, fawn on, bow and scrape, toadytruckle, abase oneself, humble oneself, prostrate oneself;More
  2. 2.
    historical
    kneel and touch the ground with the forehead in worship or submission as part of Chinese custom.
    synonyms:prostrate oneself, bow, bow down before, genuflect, do/make obeisance, fall on one's knees before, get down on one's knees before, kneel before; More
noun
historical
  1. 1.
    an act of kowtowing as part of Chinese custom.

climate refugee


 "climate refugee"是否為"新詞",待查。

mitochondrial DNA, Jack the Ripper


  • In 2002, crime novelist Patricia Cornwell, in Portrait of a Killer: Jack the Ripper—Case Closed, maintained that Sickert was Jack the Ripper.[38] A psychological motivation for Sickert was said to be a congenital anomaly of his penis.[39] Cornwell purchased 31 of Sickert's paintings, and some in the art world have said that she destroyed one of them in a search for Sickert's DNA, but Cornwell denies having done this.[38][39] Cornwell claimed she was able to scientifically prove that Mitochondrial DNA from one of more than 600 Ripper-letters sent to Scotland Yard and mitochondrial DNA from a letter written by Sickert belong to only one percent of the population.[40]
In 2004, the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography, in its article on Sickert, dismissed any claim that he was Jack the Ripper as "fantasy".[41]



粒線體DNA英語:mitochondrial DNA縮寫mtDNA)指一些位於粒線體內的DNA,與一般位於細胞核內的DNA有不同的演化起源,可能是源自早期細菌。雖然現存生物體中絕大多數作用於粒線體的蛋白質,是由細胞核DNA所製造,但這些基因中有一些可能是源於細菌,並於演化過程中轉移到細胞核中。

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA or mDNA)[2] is the DNA located in mitochondria, cellular organelles within eukaryotic cells that convert chemical energy from food into a form that cells can use, adenosine triphosphate (ATP). Mitochondrial DNA is only a small portion of the DNA in a eukaryotic cell; most of the DNA can be found in the cell nucleus and, in plants and algae, also in the plastids, like chloroplasts.

2016年12月17日 星期六

“pre-truth,” “post-truth”、Post-truth politics, Postfaktisch, Oxford Dictionaries Word of the Year 2016

"We’ve been calling this 'post-truth politics' but I now worry that the phrase is far too gentle […] what Trump is doing is not 'engaging in post-truth politics'. He’s lying." – Jonathan Freedland.




Post-truth politics (also called post-factual politics) is a political culture in which debate is framed largely by appeals to emotion disconnected from the details of policy, and by the repeated assertion of talking points to which factual rebuttals are ignored. Post-truth differs from traditional…
EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORG




2016.11.16 


Image for the news result
The Oxford English Dictionary named "post-truth" its 2016 word of the year over terms like ...
Oxford Dictionaries Word of the Year 2016 is...
Oxford Dictionaries - 1 day ago --推薦
外,
牛津為每個字錄的影片:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xcW7Tg5E34

'Post-Truth' Named Oxford Dictionary Word of the Year
Voice of America - 13 hours ago

~~~~詞條是2016.10.15 寫的。
What the video does reveal, though, is how this tech-savvy country, where 688 million people have internet access, is grappling with a digitally driven “post-truth” environment, just as other nations are.
But complicating the situation in China is an underlying “pre-truth,” the result of state censorship that manipulates and directs reporting.
這個故事凸顯了一個問題:和其他國家一樣,這個有6.88億接入了互聯網的技術嫻熟人口的國家,正處在一個數字化驅動的「後真相」環境中。但是,讓中國的情況更為複雜的是,這裡有「前真相」的基礎,就是國家的審查制度操縱和引導新聞報導
香港大學「中國傳媒研究計劃」編輯班志遠(David Bandurski)在接受採訪時說:「在中國,真相總是預先制定好的,而不是通過事實的報導揭示出來的。」


一家公司團隊活動時做的遊戲,傳播到網上的第二天就開始變了味。
活動的標題變成女員工排隊「親吻老闆」,2個月後,又變成「女員工每天排隊和老闆接吻」。
在中國浩瀚的互聯網上,這樣的「假新聞」並非個例。


一則「女員工排隊吻老闆」的視頻在網路熱傳,被查證為假新聞。此事凸顯出中國正處於數字化驅動的「後真相」環境中。相對的,則是由國家審查制度操縱和引導的「前真相」。
CN.NYTIMES.COM



(德國之聲中文網)在今年接近尾聲時,德國人尤其多使用了"後真相"(Postfaktisch)一詞。隨著美國總統大选和特朗普的勝出,以及虛假事實的傳播,"後真相"(Postfaktisch)一詞一再被使用。甚至德國總理默克爾也曾提及它。這個詞常被用於"客觀事實對公眾觀點的影響要小於人們被喚起的主觀感覺和感受"時。它對應的英文"post-truth"已被評為"2016年度國際詞彙"。

 三個候選熱門詞彙

一段時間以來,"英國脫歐"(Brexit)都被作為年度詞彙的候選大熱門。此外,熱門候選詞彙還有"令人恐懼的小丑"(Gruselclowns)。
Großbritannien Parteikongress der Konservativen in Birmingham (Getty Images/C. Court)

"年度詞彙"每年由德國語言協會(GfDS)的一個評審團選出。今年,評審團從各種媒體中選出1300個詞彙,再加上外界推薦的700個詞彙,組成了全部候選詞彙。在2015年評選時,"難民"(Flüchtlinge)一詞的排名非常靠前。
Horror-Clown (picture-alliance/dpa/P. Zinken)
 使用頻率並非決定因素

德國語言協會尋找的是在語言方面對一年的政治、經濟和社會起決定作用的單詞和習語。德國語言協會不會根據一個詞語使用的頻率選擇它,他們考慮更多的是該詞語的意義、普及性,以及語言質量。

簡如/洪沙(德新社、德國語言協會)

"jumbo", jumbo jet 1964, Mumbo jumbo,







Just as the clergy in the Middle Ages spoke in Latin to give their words an air of authority, management theorists speak in mumbo-jumbo



Management theory is becoming a compendium of dead ideas
What Martin Luther did to the Catholic church needs to be done to business…
ECONOMIST.COM



BBC Future
Only a stroke of luck at 37,000ft prevented them drifting up to their deaths.



It was one of the most foolhardy flights in history, and only a stroke of luck at 37,000ft prevented them drifting up to their deaths at the edge of the atmosphere.
BBC.COM|由 DAVID ROBSON 上傳






jumbo 

Pronunciation: /ˈdʒʌmbəʊ/ 

informal

NOUN (plural jumbos)

1A very large person or thing.
1.1(also jumbo jet)A very large airliner (originally and specifically a Boeing 747).

ADJECTIVE

[ATTRIBUTIVE]
Very large:a jumbo pad



Origin

Early 19th century (originally of a person): probably the second element of mumbo jumbo. Originally denoting a large and clumsy person, the term was popularized as the name of an elephant at London Zoo, sold in 1882 to the Barnum and Bailey circus.
  • In the early 19th century jumbo was applied to a large and clumsy person. The word became well known when it was used as a name for an elephant at London Zoo. He was sold to the Barnum and Bailey circus in 1882, despite massive public protest. Since 1964 it has referred to a large jet airliner, in particular the Boeing 747.

debris, comet, jumbo, superjumbo

Comets are often referred to as "dirty snowballs." They are left over from the formation of stars and planets billions of years ago. Before zipping around the Sun with their characteristic big tails, comets that we see in our solar system start out as big chunks of rock and ice just floating around in something called the Oort cloud. When the gravity from a large passing body, like a star, becomes strong enough, some large chunks of ice get pulled away from the cloud and head toward the Sun. As that ball of ice gets close enough to the Sun, its heat begins to melt some of the ice that makes up the comet. The melted ice becomes a gaseous tail that extends away from the source of the heat (in this case, the Sun). The tail is pushed out by the Sun's solar wind.

What keeps the comet in motion and guides its path is the gravity from all the planets and stars it passes. When a comet is in our solar system, most of the gravity affecting the comet's motion is due to the Sun. As a comet gets closer to the Sun it moves faster and faster, because the closer an object is to the Sun the stronger the Sun's gravity acts on it. As well as moving faster near the Sun, the comet's tail will grow in length since more of the ice will be evaporating.


Spotlight:
Buy Poster at AllPosters.com                      
Baby Elephant
Peeking Out
View Poster
Aristotle once called the elephant "the beast which passeth all others in wit and mind." They're the largest living land mammals, naturally found in the tropical regions of Africa and Asia. Such a large animal needs plenty of food — the average elephant eats around 500 lbs (225 kg) of vegetation and drinks up to 50 gal (190 l) of water every day. As Aristotle pointed out, though, one of the most appealing things about elephants is their intelligence. They have been trained to do all kinds of tricks, and a few elephants became famous for their artwork. One elephant, Ruby, had a painting sold for $100,000. The word "jumbo" was inspired by Jumbo, one of history's largest circus elephants. It is thought to be a derivative of the Swahili word "jambe," meaning "chief." On this date in 1796, the first elephant arrived in the United States, brought from Bengal.


Reports: Airbus and Boeing Could See More Delivery Delays

Franco-German aircraft maker Airbus has written to clients warning of more
possible delays in deliveries of its A380 superjumbo, a German magazine
said on Sunday. Boeing's Dreamliner will be reportedly late as well.

The DW-WORLD Article


jumbo
adjective [before noun]
extremely large:
a jumbo bag of sweets
a jumbo-sized packetsuperjumbo 超大型客機
jumbo jet noun [C] (INFORMAL jumbo)
a very large aircraft which can carry a lot of people

debris
 
noun [U]
broken or torn pieces of something larger:
Debris from the aircraft was scattered over a large area.

DEBRIS HAZARD CONTROL AND CLEANUP
殘碎--危害物管理與清除抑制、移走及收拾公路上碎片的過程(不同於公路一般的或例行的更新和維修)。包括碰撞事故產生的碎片,車輛翻覆或損壞而濺漏出者,如燃油及可燃性液體、危險化學品、毒性物質或毒物,放射性物質、干擾性液體(如糖蜜)及大量乾的物質等。


天文學名詞 PLUME 羽狀物
(慧星News - Comet impact gave 'powder plume' They caught the vast and dramatic plume of debris that spread out into space. X-ray puzzle The ensuing debris plume expanded rapidly above the impact site at about 5km/s. 11 Jul 2005


On Friday the **United States** said it was* *re-evaluating space cooperation with **China**, saying the satellite* *downing last month was inconsistent with a US-Chinese agreement. The*
*US and Washington stopped anti-satellite tests in 1985, in part**because of concerns about debris left drifting in space. **(德國之音)*


張瑞麟先生2004年的英法聯軍:
debris
 wotd20040624 
——
今天為大家介紹 debris ,法文拼寫形式為 débris ,它也是今日字彙的字源,是由古法語動詞 débriser 變化而來,但是當代法語字典已見不到這個動詞形態。其他相關資料請參考《我的英漢辭典》和《我的法漢辭典》。
——
※文摘譯例※
  • En.
    debris
    1. Source: Jeffrey M. Smith : « Seeds of Deception» Ch. 2 » To understand this, we must again look at how the theory of genetics has evolved since genetic engineering began. Only a small percentage of the DNA has been identified as genes. In humans, it's between 1.1 and 1.4 percent. The much larger portion of the DNA was once referred to as “junk DNA.” It was considered by scientists to be useless debris left over from the evolution of the species. Shooting foreign genes into sections of junk DNA was considered a safe zone. In reality, it may be just the opposite.

Mumbo jumbo, or mumbo-jumbo, is an English term which denotes confusing or meaningless language. It is often used to express humorous criticism of middle-management and civil-service doublespeak.
It may also refer to practices based on superstitionrituals intended to cause confusion, or languages that the speaker does not understand.

Origins and usage[edit]

The phrase probably originated from the Mandingo name Maamajomboo, a masked dancer that took part in religious ceremonies. Mungo Park's travel journal Travels in the Interior of Africa (1795) describes 'Mumbo Jumbo' as a character, complete with "masquerade habit", that Mandinka males would dress up in order to resolve domestic disputes.[1] In the 18th century mumbo jumbo referred to a West African god.
Mumbo Jumbo is a noun and is the name of a grotesque idol said to have been worshipped by some tribes. In its figurative sense, Mumbo Jumbo is an object of senseless veneration or a meaningless ritual.